Tradercommunity Clickoptions Forum

[GoldenSnuff]

NYMEX-Natural gas ends slightly higher with crude

* NYMEX crude futures end up 74 cents a barrel

* Tropical wave in eastern Caribbean not seen as threat

* Mild Northeast, Midwest weather forecasts limit gains

* Record high storage, weak demand also weigh on sentiment

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures, underpinned by firmer crude prices, ended slightly higher on Tuesday, but mild U.S. weather forecasts, record high storage and slumping industrial demand helped limit the upside, traders said.
August natural gas edged up 1.6 cents to close at $3.705 per mmBtu after trading between $3.606 and $3.745. Early last week, the front month hit a 2-1/2 month spot chart low of $3.225. Winter months also finished with modest gains, with January ending up 2.5 cents at $5.647.
"The market has tightened - there's a little less gas around - so people are trying to extend last week's rally, but I'm still concerned about storage filling up, and there's been no (hot) weather in the Northeast or Midwest this summer," said one Texas-based producer, noting firm crude, up almost 75 cents a barrel today, triggered some of the buying in gas.
Traders said a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean served as a reminder that the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was still ahead, but many expected record high inventories, sliding demand and fairly mild weather forecasts for the next two weeks to limit any upside.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center on Tuesday was monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean but said upper level winds were not favorable for development.
AccuWeather.com still expects temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest, key gas consuming regions, to range from normal to below normal for the next two weeks, with highs mostly drifting in the high-70s to mid-80s Fahrenheit area.
In addition, traders noted the triple-digit heat that plagued Texas, another big gas user, for weeks had finally moderated, with highs mostly expected to remain near seasonal levels in the mid-90s for the next 10 days.
The National Weather Service eight- to 14-day outlook on Monday called for normal or below normal temperatures for most of the nation, with above seasonal readings forecast for the Northwest and Gulf Coast states from Texas to Florida.
On the storage front, last week's report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed total domestic gas inventories climbed to 2.886 trillion cubic feet, still a record high for this time of year.
Inventories now stand at 589 billion cubic feet, or 26 percent, above last year and 454 bcf, or 19 percent, above the five-year average.
Injection estimates for Thursday's EIA report range from 63 bcf to 82 bcf, with most in the high-60s. Stocks rose an adjusted 87 bcf for the same week last year, while the five-year average build for that week is 62 bcf.
If weekly gains match the five-year average for the remaining 16 weeks of the stock building season, storage will begin next winter with a record high 3.832 tcf in the ground.
Some traders expect the recent decline in gas drilling and slowing domestic production to soon lead to a tighter market.
Recent data showed U.S. natural gas production fell for a fourth straight month in June, with output finally dropping below the same year-ago month for the first time this year.
Baker Hughes said Friday the number of U.S. rigs drilling for natural gas fell 7 to 665, down 57 percent from the same week last year and the lowest level in more than seven years.
But with little weather demand on the horizon and storage on track to hit all-time highs, most traders expect the market to remain oversupplied without a broad-based heat wave to kick up demand or a series of summer storms to disrupt supplies.
Chart traders pegged key August support at the 6-1/2-year spot chart low of $3.155 from late April, with further buying expected at $3. August resistance was seen at the 40-day moving average in the $3.76 area and then at $4.
In the cash market, Henry Hub swing quotes eased a penny to $3.48, with late morning deals little changed from Monday at about 14 cents under NYMEX.
Next-day prices on Transco pipeline at the New York city gate gained 3 cents to $3.83 on the warmer Wednesday outlook, while Chicago was 2 cents lower at $3.46.
The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip edged up 2.1 cents to settle at $5.092. Henry Hub open interest on July 20 rose 5,656 contracts to 763,095.

[GoldenSnuff]

GC long 955,50 !

Limit ist hier heute vormittag erreicht worden....ich denke, dass die Zutaten momentan stimmen für einen Goldpreisanstieg deutlich über die 1000 Dollar-Marke !

Gruß
GS

[GoldenSnuff]

@ Gaudete

Mein Fahrplan für Weizen, Mais und Co sieht im Großen und Ganzen folgendermaßen aus: Ich rechne im ersten Halbjahr mit einer gewissen Dollarstärke, sehe den Dollar aber im 2. Halbjahr deutlich tiefer ( Ziel mindestens 1,60). Desweiteren haben viele Bauern im Sommer Ihre Ernten aufgrund der dramatisch eingebrochenen Preise ( High bei den Agrars war ja im Feburar/März) noch nicht verkauft ( weiß ich in Deutschland aus erster Hand, soll aber auch eine Grundtendenz in den USA in diese Richtung geben). das sollte bedeuten, dass im ersten Halbjahr tendenziell ein erhöhtes Angebot an Mais/Weizen und Co vorhanden sein sollte....die Läger müssen ja bis zur neuen Ernte geräumt sein.....
Werde daher versuchen (parallel zum EUR/USD) Preisrückgänge zu gestaffelten Longeinstiegen zu nutzen, um dann für die 2. Jahreshälfte gerüstet zu sein.....Gold dürfte ebenfalls mitziehen und im 2. Halbjahr die 1000$ erneut anlaufen....
Bei Öl bin ich wesentlich skeptischer.....

Gruß
GS

Prognose von Anfang Januar in diesem Bereich passt bislang ganz gut....mit einer dicken Ausnahme und die ist der Ölpreis....hätte hier nicht mit einem derartigen Anstieg gerechnet....und war deswegen auch nicht dabei....

EUR/USD allerdings wie erwartet im 1. Halbjahr tendenziell mit Stärke....kippt aber immer weiter.....

Meine Positionierung mit Longpositionen in Weizen, Gold und Gas steht damit jetzt für´s erste....

[GoldenSnuff]

NG SQUUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE !

[GoldenSnuff]

Gas hat heute die nächste Stufe gezündet......Mal schaun, ob das realtiv hohe Niveau jetzt erstmal gehalten werden kann....

NYMEX-Natural gas rises 10 pct, with crude, equities

* NYMEX nat gas hits six-week high

* Cash gas lifted by return of weekday demand

* Wall Street rallies, S&P 500 above 1,000

* High storage still weighs on sentiment

NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 10 percent Monday, rallying to their highest level in more than six weeks amid stronger cash gas, higher crude futures and bullish weather patterns, traders said. Traders are keeping a close eye on summer heat trickling in to more areas of the nation and the onset of the typical "peak" of the hurricane season in August and September.
"With the energy complex soaring on the heals of a very strong equity market, coupled with the start of peak hurricane season kicking in and summer heat sizzling in the West, natural gas prices are signaling a secular bottom has been put in, with higher prices likely in the cards," said Caprock Risk Management's president and senior analyst, Chris Jarvis.
Traders also said the market remained vulnerable to short-covering, noting Friday's CFTC report that showed funds holding 160,950 net short futures, up 2,514 contracts from the previous week's total of 158,436.
Funds have added to their net short natural gas futures positions in 17 of the last 20 weeks.
Steep declines in drilling this year have also slowed production and tightened supplies, but some expect the market to remain oversupplied until the economy shows more signs of recovery or a sustained, broad-based heat wave kicks up demand or a series of summer storms starts to disrupt supplies.
Front month September futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 37.8 cents, or 10.35 percent, to settle at $4.031 per million British thermal units, after trading in electronic trade between $3.596 and $4.162, the highest level for a front-month contract since mid-June, according to Reuters data. Some traders were surprised by the $4.162 trade, which was confirmed by a NYMEX spokeswoman.
Other months were higher as well, with the October contract ending up 37.6 cents, or more than 9 percent, at $4.285, and winter months settling up about 30 cents each.
The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip rose 29.6 cents to finish at $5.565.
NYMEX front month September crude futures , meanwhile, rose $2.13, or more than 3 percent, to settle at $71.58 a barrel.
In the cash market, gas for delivery at Henry Hub , the NYMEX delivery point in Louisiana, rose 9 cents on average to $3.43, with cash deals done at about a 26-cent discount to the front month, firming slightly from deals done late Friday at about a 33-cent discount.
Gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York city gate rose 19 cents on average to $3.75, while Chicago gas was 16 cents higher on the day at $3.44.
Temperatures in both key gas consuming cities were seen a mix of above and below normal for the next six days, with highs mostly in the 80s Fahrenheit, according to forecaster DTN Meteorlogix.
Houston, Los Angeles and Miami were all seen just above normal for the period, with highs in the South and West expected to range from the high-70s to the high-90s F, the forecaster said.
The latest National Weather Service six to 10-day outlook and the 11 to 14-day outlook both issued Sunday called for above-normal readings across the eastern two-thirds of the nation and below normal in the western third.
On the storage front, last week's report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed total domestic gas inventories climbed to 3.023 trillion cubic feet, still a record high for this time of year and the earliest ever that stocks crossed the 3 tcf mark. Normally, storage does not break 3 tcf until mid-September.
Inventories now stand 571 billion cubic feet, or 23 percent, above last year and 478 bcf, or 19 percent, above the five-year average.
Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 55 bcf to 60 bcf versus a 57 bcf adjusted gain for the same week in 2008.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Monday it did not expect any tropical development during the next 48 hours.
In the news Monday, the United States Natural Gas Fund, a giant exchange traded fund in the natural gas market, said it was still awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to issue new shares.
Also Anadarko Petroleum Corp, operator of the huge Independence Hub natural gas production platform in the Gulf of Mexico, said the platform was operating near normal production volumes despite market rumors to the contrary.
Chart traders saw September resistance at recent highs in $4.387 and $4.575 area. Support was pegged first at recent lows in the $3.40 area and then at the 6-1/2 year spot chart low of $3.155 from late April and at $3.

[GoldenSnuff]

Herber Rückschlag für meine Positonen gestern......Gold soweit noch in Ordnung....Gas aber mit heftigem Rücksetzer nach den Lagerbeständen....technisch ist hier aber über 3,50 alles ok.....im Gegensatz zum Weizen....neue Lows gestern nach überraschend hohen Ernteprognosen aus Australien.....technisch jetzt schwer angeschlagen....

Bleibe aber bei allen Positionen mit voller Size dabei !

[GoldenSnuff]

Herber Rückschlag für meine Positonen gestern......Gold soweit noch in Ordnung....Gas aber mit heftigem Rücksetzer nach den Lagerbeständen....technisch ist hier aber über 3,50 alles ok.....im Gegensatz zum Weizen....neue Lows gestern nach überraschend hohen Ernteprognosen aus Australien.....technisch jetzt schwer angeschlagen....

Bleibe aber bei allen Positionen mit voller Size dabei !

Sieht weiter nicht gut aus....alle Positionen jetzt hinten.....Gas jetzt an der wichtigen 3,50er Marke.....Weizen probiert, sich im Bereich 480/500 zu stabilisieren......

[GoldenSnuff]

Reif für eine Konsolidierung wäre Zucker.....Wahnsinnslauf die letzte Zeit ! Bin aber noch vorsichtig.....

[GoldenSnuff]

Reif für eine Konsolidierung wäre Zucker.....Wahnsinnslauf die letzte Zeit ! Bin aber noch vorsichtig.....

Zuckerpreise klettern auf neues Rekordhoch

New York, 12. Aug (Reuters) - Zucker kostet so viel wie lange nicht mehr. Massive Importe Indiens und witterungsbedingte Auslieferungsverspätungen in Brasilien haben den Rohzuckerpreis auf ein 28-Jahres-Hoch getrieben. Der Terminkontrakt verteuerte sich am Mittwoch auf bis zu 22,09 Dollar je Pfund. Zum Preisanstieg trugen auch neue Darstellungen über die Zuckerproduktion in Indien bei. Nach dem schwachen Monsun werde der Zuckerertrag in 2009/10 bei rund 17 Millionen Tonnen liegen, statt wie bisher erwartet bei 19 Millionen Tonnen, sagte Analyst Jonathan Kingsman Reuters TV. Indien ist der weltgrößte Zuckerverbraucher und Brasilien führender Anbauer und Exporteur.
Der europäische Marktführer ist Südzucker.

[GoldenSnuff]

Weizen heute mit erstem Hoffnungsschimmer im Chart....würde bei Bestätigung zukaufen....