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[GoldenSnuff]

@ Gaudete
Mein Fahrplan für Weizen, Mais und Co sieht im Großen und Ganzen folgendermaßen aus: Ich rechne im ersten Halbjahr mit einer gewissen Dollarstärke, sehe den Dollar aber im 2. Halbjahr deutlich tiefer ( Ziel 1,60). Desweiteren haben viele Bauern im Sommer Ihre Ernten aufgrund der dramatisch eingebrochenen Preise ( High bei den Agrars war ja im Feburar/März) noch nicht verkauft ( weiß ich in Deutschland aus erster Hand, soll aber auch eine Grundtendenz in den USA in diese Richtung geben). das sollte bedeuten, dass im ersten Halbjahr tendenziell ein erhöhtes Angebot an Mais/Weizen und Co vorhanden sein sollte....die Läger müssen ja bis zur neuen Ernte geräumt sein.....
Werde daher versuchen (parallel zum EUR/USD) Preisrückgänge zu gestaffelten Longeinstiegen zu nutzen, um dann für die 2. Jahreshälfte gerüstet zu sein.....Gold dürfte ebenfalls mitziehen und im 2. Halbjahr die 1000$ erneut anlaufen....
Bei Öl bin ich wesentlich skeptischer.....

Gruß
GS

Sehe bei den Agrars schön langsam die Zeit gekommen mit den gestaffelten Einstiegen anzufangen.....Der EUR/USD hat die Unterstützung bei 1,30 erstmal durchbrochen.......Weitere Verluste hier sollten auch in eingen Agrarrohstoffen nochmal zu Rückgangen führen......
Interessant erscheint mirfür Anfangspostionen im Weizen der Bereich um 500 / 505.......

Bei Mais muss man noch ein bisschen aufpassen.....Da steht diese Woche eine wichtige Entscheidung bezgl Ethanol in Kalifornien an....Es ist wohl realtiv wahrscheinlich, dass dort der Verbrauch von Ethanol verboten wird....
Würde hier den Bereich um 350 / 360 für eine Anfangsposition für interessant halten...

Technisch recht gut gefällt mir aktuell Zucker......

Gruß
GS

YWN9 long 520 ! (Juli-Kontrakt)

Der Weizenfrontkontrakt ( Mai 09 ) ist jetzt in die Unterstützungszone reingelaufen......hab mir daher planmäßig eine Position geholt.....

Kurzes Update: Weizen ist sehr schön angelaufen....Shortsquezze am Freitag bis über 570....konsolidiert aktuell etwas....aktuell um 558.....Bleibe natürlich weiter dabei !

Weizen nach Konsolidierung planmäßig auf neue Zwischenhighs.....SK heute 591 im Julikontrakt !

TVK 597 !

Hab heute ein weiteres Drittel raus auf der 595 !

Rest heute auch raus zu 601 ! Sehr schön gelaufen....Wie bereits geschrieben rechne ich damit, da billiger wieder einsteigen zu können...allein schon aus saisonalen Gründen.....

[GoldenSnuff]

QMN9 short 61,00 !

Gruß
GS

UPDATE 4-Oil falls below $61 after rise to 6-month peak
21 Mai 2009 - 14:11

* Oil falls after rising to 6-month high

* US weekly new jobless claims fall,ongoing claims at record

LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - Oil fell more than a dollar to below $61 a barrel on Thursday, after hitting a six-month high in the previous session on expectations of a rebound in the world economy.

U.S. crude for July delivery was down $1.24 a barrel at $60.80 by 1254 GMT. It had settled at $62.04 a barrel, before trading up to a six-month high of $62.26 in post-settlement activity. London Brent was down $1.11 at $59.48.

Oil has nearly doubled since December, despite weak demand and high fuel inventories. Prices have risen by about a third in the past four weeks.

A rally in equity markets has partly inspired oil's gains in anticipation of a recovery in world economic growth and oil consumption.

"While it may seem at odds with recent demand data and high levels of global inventories, we believe the economic outlook is improving and a second-half recovery, perhaps more vigorous than even we foresee, is on the cards," JP Morgan said in a note.

The bank also raised its 2009 and 2010 oil price forecasts, looking for $55.63 a barrel in 2009 against a previous forecast of $49.38. It raised its 2010 forecast by an even larger $10 to $67.50 a barrel.

Latest U.S. government data on oil inventories provided evidence to support the view that the economic climate might be improving.

Crude oil and gasoline stockpiles in the United States tumbled sharply last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, with crude declining 2.1 million barrels and gasoline falling 4.3 million barrels.

"We have become more confident that global activity is nearing the turning point," Citi oil analysts said in a research note. "Nevertheless, we still expect that the pace of global recovery will be subdued," it said.

"The widespread global plunge in activity and credit availability remains a drag on global trade."

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless aid fell by 12,000 to 631,000 in the week to May 16 versus analysts' forecasts for 630,000 new claims. Ongoing claims hit a new record.

Bullish investor sentiment about the global economic outlook has shown signs of moderating after the United States cut growth forecasts for the next three years and credit rating agency Standard & Poor's cut its outlook on the United Kingdom to negative from stable.

This knocked European equity markets, ending a five-day advance.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels per day of output since September in a bid to prop up oil prices, will meet on May 28 to discuss output policy.

Eleven out of 12 oil analysts and economists surveyed by Reuters predicted OPEC would maintain output.

[GoldenSnuff]

QGN9 long 3,80 !

Switsch in den Erdgasjulikontrakt.....Plane weiter unten aber noch eine 2. Position.....

[GoldenSnuff]

CBOT wheat, corn end higher
28 Mai 2009 - 19:59

CHICAGO, May 28 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade grains and soy complex closing on Thursday.

WHEAT - July up 4-3/4 cents per bushel at $6.30-1/2.

Rallies to four-month high on fund buying, concern about reports of diseases and low yields in U.S. winter wheat crop and slow seeding of the U.S. spring wheat crop.

* Funds bought 3,000 lots.

* Japan buys 71,000 tonnes of wheat.

* Mostly favorable weather for developing U.S. winter wheat crop, improved planting weather for U.S. spring wheat area and rainfall aids soil moisture levels in some Argentine wheat areas.


CORN - July up 2-3/4 cents per bushel at $4.28-3/4.

Fund buying, higher wheat and concerns about production declines this year because of late seeding of 2009 U.S. corn crop supports corn futures.

* Funds bought 7,000 lots.

* Wet weather may continue to slow crop plantings in Illinois and Indiana with better seeding weather elsewhere.

* U.S. Midwest basis bids were steady/firm early Thursday with farmer sales quiet.


SOYBEANS - July down 8 cents per bushel at $11.79.

Profit-taking after rally to eight-month high on tight stocks of soy and fund buying.

* Funds sold 2,000 lots.

* There was talk that China may have canceled one to three cargoes of U.S. soybeans out of the Gulf.

* U.S. soybeans jump past $12 on tight stocks.

* Wet weather may continue to slow crop plantings in Illinois and Indiana with better seeding weather elsewhere.

* Census pegs U.S. April soy crush 140.56 million bushels, below estimates for 141.2 million.

* U.S. Midwest basis bids for soybeans were firm early Thursday with country sales quiet.

[GoldenSnuff]

QGN9 long 3,80 !

Switsch in den Erdgasjulikontrakt.....Plane weiter unten aber noch eine 2. Position.....

NYMEX-Natural gas ends up 9 pct after EIA revises data

* EIA build below trader expectations, revisions to previous data

* NYMEX crude futures rise, OPEC keeps output unchanged

* Cash gas mixed, Henry Hub rises with futures

* Positive economic news, onset of storm season supports


NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 9 percent Thursday, boosted by a slightly smaller-than-expected build to winter inventories and revisions to previous week's data as well as rising crude futures and positive U.S. economic data.

In addition, traders said the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 could keep sellers cautious, noting the season's first tropical depression formed in the Atlantic on Thursday though the system was not expected to have an effect on energy production.

"The revisions allowed the more bullish sentiment among participants to shine through today. It's really a matter of time before all the production reductions start to take affect as we move into the summertime," said Hencorp's Julio Sera.

"If we have a real hot summer and the the cooling season is greater-than-expected, then you're going to get some interesting movement to the upside. As production falls, supplies begin to dwindle and that will be very supportive to natural gas prices and that's really what people are thinking as we move forward," Sera added.

New front month July futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 31.9 cents, or 8.77 percent, to settle at $3.957 per million British thermal units, after trading in electronic trade between $3.572 and $3.979.

Just prior to the release of the EIA storage data early in the day, the July contract was trading in the $3.605 area.

Other months ended higher as well, with the August contract rising 31.1 cents, or 8.28 percent to settle at $4.069 and winter months ending more than 20 cents higher.

The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip jumped 45.6 cents to end at $5.284.

NYMEX front month July crude futures , meanwhile, rose $1.63 to settle at $65.08 a barrel.

In the cash market, gas for delivery through Sunday at Henry Hub , the NYMEX delivery point in Louisiana, rose 6 cents on average to $3.55, with late Hub cash deals hear at about a 23-cent discount to the front month contract, from deals done late Wednesday at about a 3-cent discount to the expiring June contract.

Gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York city gate , however, fell 6 cents to $3.38, while Chicago gas was 5 cents lower at $3.33.

Temperatures in both key gas consuming cities were seen a mix of above and below normal for the next six days, with highs mostly in the mid to high-70s Fahrenheit in both cities, according to forecaster DTN Meteorlogix.

Houston, Los Angeles and Miami were all seen close to normal for the period, with highs in the South and West expected to range from near 70 degrees to the high-80s F, the forecaster said.

The latest National Weather Service six to 10-day outlook issued Wednesday called for above-normal readings for a large swath of the Southwest and mostly below-normal readings in the eastern half of the nation.

On the storage front, most traders agreed Thursday's 106 billion cubic feet build was supportive, noting it was below Reuters survey estimates for a 108 bcf build, but well above the year-ago rise of 87 bcf and the 91 bcf five-year average build for that week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed total domestic gas inventories stood at 2.213 trillion cubic feet, 524 bcf, or 31 percent, above last year and 22 percent above the five-year average.

The EIA also revised its weekly natural gas data for the week ended May 15 to change from 2,116 bcf to 2,107 bcf and said historical working gas levels for the weeks ended May 1 and May 8 also were revised to reflect resubmissions of data.

Stocks for the week ended May 1 were changed from 1,918 to 1,911 bcf, and stocks for the week ended May 8 were changed from 2,013 to 2,005 bcf.

To get inventories back to a comfortable 3.4 tcf by next winter, weekly injections must average 52 bcf for the remaining 23 weeks of the stock building season.

Chart traders pegged July support in the $3.50 area and then at this week's spot chart low of $3.388 and the 6-1/2-year spot low of $3.155 from late April. Resistance was seen at $4 and then at the three-month spot high of $4.575 from two weeks ago and February spot highs in the high-$4.80s.

[GoldenSnuff]

QMN9 short 61,00 !

Gruß
GS

Hab mir hier über 65 eine 2. Position geholt....liege hier aber dick hinten und schaue mir das auch nicht mehr ewig an.....

[GoldenSnuff]

QGN9 long 3,80 !

Switsch in den Erdgasjulikontrakt.....Plane weiter unten aber noch eine 2. Position.....

Habe hier heute zu 3,65 aufgestockt......

[GoldenSnuff]

NYMEX-Natural gas ends up, backed by technical support

* Tech buying props up prices after attempt to move lower

* Thursday's weekly natgas inventory data seen as bearish

* Cash gas slips on mild Northeast, Midwest weather

* Record storage, weak demand also limit upside


NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures ended higher on Friday, propped up by technical buying after recent attempts to move lower stalled despite mild weather forecasts, record high inventories and softer weekend cash prices.

July natural gas climbed 5.8 cents to close at $3.868 per mmBtu after trading between $3.714 and $3.986. Winter months finished with bigger gains, with January ending up 12.9 cents at $6.197.

"Back months have been doing better than current months with all the talk about the economy, but the supply-demand balance is still loose, and gas fundamentals are as bearish as they have been in a long time," said one southern commodity trading advisor, adding the market seemed to be trading technically, holding support in the $3.50s.

While an improving economy and sharp declines in drilling may tighten the market later, many traders remained skeptical of any upside, expecting recession-related cuts in demand, record high inventories and mild late-spring weather to keep the market oversupplied, at least until a broad-based heat wave kicks up cooling loads or a summer storm disrupts production.

Most traders agreed Thursday's 124 billion cubic feet weekly natural gas storage build was bearish, noting it was well above the Reuters estimate of 114 bcf, last year's gain of 102 bcf and the five-year average rise for that week of 94 bcf.

Some noted that $2-plus cash spreads to winter months offered a strong incentive to put gas in the ground early.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed that total domestic gas inventories climbed to 2.337 trillion cubic feet, a record high for this time of year.

Inventories now stand at 546 bcf, or 30 percent, above last year and 22 percent, above the five-year average. [ID:nPRWPI54]

Early injection estimates for next week's EIA report range from 103 bcf to 115 bcf versus an 84 bcf adjusted build for the same week in 2008.

To get inventories back to a comfortable 3.4 tcf by next winter, weekly injections must average 48 bcf for the remaining 22 weeks of the stock building season, well below the five-year average of 67 bcf for that period.

If weekly storage builds through October match the five-year average pace, inventories will begin next heating season with 3.8 tcf in the ground, a new record high.

AccuWeather.com expects temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest, key gas consuming regions, to mostly range from normal to below normal for the next week, with highs in the 70s Fahrenheit area not likely to generate much demand.

The National Weather Service eight- to 14-day outlook on Thursday called for normal or below normal temperatures for most of the nation, with above seasonal readings expected only in Gulf Coast states from Texas to Florida.

While a growing inventory glut could seriously pressure prices later in the April-through-October stock building season, some traders expect gas fundamentals to improve this summer as record drilling declines trim output and relatively low prices encourage more demand.

EIA reported last week that gross domestic natural gas production in March fell slightly from February but was still more than 2 percent above the same time last year.

Most industry analysts expect year-on-year output declines soon, probably by late spring or early summer.

Chart traders pegged July resistance first at $4 and then at the three-month spot high of $4.575 from mid-May and February spot highs in the high-$4.80s. July support was seen in the $3.50 area and then at last week's low of $3.388 and the 6-1/2-year spot low of $3.155 from late April.

In the cash market, Henry Hub weekend quotes slipped 7 cents to $3.51, with late morning deals weakening to 30 cents under NYMEX from a 22-cent discount on Thursday.

Prices on Transco pipeline at the New York city gate lost 8 cents to $3.78 on the mild late-week outlook, while Chicago was 17 cents lower at $3.25.

The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip gained 10.6 cents to settle at $5.368. Henry Hub open interest on June 4 jumped 11,248 contracts to 701,448.

[GoldenSnuff]

QMN9 short 61,00 !

Gruß
GS

Hab mir hier über 65 eine 2. Position geholt....liege hier aber dick hinten und schaue mir das auch nicht mehr ewig an.....

Wie im Tagesthread angekündigt hab ich hier den Stopp knapp über die Verlaushochs vom letzten Freitag gesetzt und bin folglich gestern Abend ausgestopt worden.....gute 650 Ticks im Schnitt Miese....Unschön.....

[GoldenSnuff]

Rückblickend zu meinem Weizentrade muss man feststellen, dass ich da leider viel zu früh raus bin......der Pullback ist jetzt aber doch noch gekommen.....

Ich denke, man kann die nächsten 1-2 Wochen ( auch in Erwartung einer Seitwärtsbewegung im US-Dollarindex) wieder Longpositionen im Weizen aufbauen.....ein Tief um den Monatswechsel Juni/Juli würde auch sehr gut zum druchschnittlichen saisonalen Verlauf passn....

Gruß
GS